The United States has leveled serious accusations against China, alleging covert nuclear testing activities and a profound lack of transparency regarding its rapidly expanding arsenal. These claims emerge as the New START treaty, the last remaining arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow, reached its expiration on February 3, 2024, raising global concerns about a new era of unconstrained nuclear competition. The charges underscore deep divisions and escalating tensions in strategic stability between major world powers.
Background: A Decades-Long Framework Unravels
The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was a landmark bilateral agreement signed in 2010 by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. It entered into force in 2011, placing verifiable limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and bombs that the United States and Russia could possess. Specifically, it capped deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 for each nation and limited deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear arms to 700. The treaty also established an extensive verification regime, including on-site inspections and data exchanges, fostering predictability and reducing the risk of miscalculation between the world's two largest nuclear powers.
In February 2021, shortly after taking office, U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to extend the treaty for five years, pushing its expiration to February 3, 2026. This extension was widely seen as a crucial step in maintaining strategic stability amidst deteriorating U.S.-Russia relations. However, in February 2023, Russia unilaterally announced its suspension of participation in the treaty, citing U.S. support for Ukraine and what it called a "proxy war" against Moscow. Despite continued U.S. diplomatic efforts to restore compliance, Russia maintained its stance, leading to the treaty's final expiration this month without any successor agreement in place.
China’s Evolving Nuclear Stance
Unlike the United States and Russia, China has historically maintained a comparatively smaller nuclear arsenal, though official figures are rarely disclosed. For decades, Beijing adhered to a "minimum deterrence" strategy, asserting that its nuclear forces were solely for defensive purposes and would not be used first (a "no first use" policy). However, recent years have witnessed a dramatic and rapid expansion and modernization of China's nuclear capabilities. Pentagon reports and independent analyses, often relying on satellite imagery, indicate the construction of hundreds of new ICBM silos across sites in western China, including in Gansu and Xinjiang provinces. Estimates suggest China's operational nuclear warhead stockpile could reach 1,000 by 2030, a significant increase from previous projections. Beijing has consistently refused to engage in trilateral arms control negotiations with the U.S. and Russia, citing the smaller size of its arsenal as justification.
Key Developments: US Accusations and Beijing’s Response
The recent accusations from Washington are not entirely new but have gained renewed urgency in the vacuum left by New START's expiration. U.S. officials, notably within the State Department's Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Strategic Stability, have repeatedly voiced concerns over China's "no limits, no transparency, no controls" approach to its nuclear program. This phrase encapsulates the core of the U.S. grievance: Beijing's refusal to provide verifiable data, engage in arms control dialogues, or offer clear assurances about the nature and intent of its nuclear expansion.
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Allegations of Covert Testing
Specific allegations have centered on China's primary nuclear test site at Lop Nur in Xinjiang. While China, like the U.S., has maintained a moratorium on nuclear weapons testing since 1996, the U.S. has previously raised concerns about activities at Lop Nur that might be inconsistent with a zero-yield standard. In 2020, under the Trump administration, the State Department's "Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments" report suggested that China might have conducted low-yield nuclear tests. These alleged tests, if they occurred, would be difficult to detect definitively without robust on-site monitoring, potentially falling below the thresholds of remote seismic detection systems. The latest accusations reiterate these long-standing concerns, implying a continued pattern of secrecy and potential non-compliance with the spirit of international non-proliferation norms.
Beijing’s Defiance and Counter-Claims
China has vehemently denied all accusations of covert nuclear testing and has dismissed U.S. concerns about its nuclear program as "baseless slander" and "hypocrisy." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokespersons have consistently stated that China adheres to its "no first use" policy and is committed to maintaining its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security. Beijing often counters U.S. criticism by pointing to Washington's own failure to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which prohibits all nuclear explosions. China, while a signatory to the CTBT, has also not ratified it, arguing that its ratification is contingent on that of the United States. This tit-for-tat exchange highlights the deep distrust and lack of common ground between the two nuclear powers.
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Impact: A Fragile Global Security Landscape
The expiration of New START, coupled with the U.S. accusations against China, ushers in a new and potentially perilous era for global strategic stability. Without the verifiable limits and data exchanges provided by New START, the world's two largest nuclear arsenals are now unconstrained by treaty. This lack of transparency and predictability significantly increases the risk of miscalculation, misunderstanding, and an unbridled arms race.
Erosion of Non-Proliferation Norms
The allegations against China, if substantiated, would severely undermine the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, particularly the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The NPT, to which China is a signatory, commits nuclear-weapon states to pursue disarmament in good faith (Article VI) and non-nuclear-weapon states to forgo developing nuclear weapons. A perceived disregard for testing moratoriums or a rapid, secretive expansion of an arsenal by a major power could weaken the NPT's credibility and encourage other states to pursue their own nuclear ambitions or question the value of existing arms control commitments. The absence of arms control mechanisms creates an environment ripe for suspicion and could incentivize a "three-way" nuclear arms race involving the U.S., Russia, and China.
Heightened Geopolitical Tensions
The issue further exacerbates already strained U.S.-China relations, adding a critical security dimension to existing disputes over Taiwan, the South China Sea, trade, and human rights. It also complicates the broader geopolitical landscape, as Russia and China deepen their strategic alignment, presenting a more unified front against perceived Western hegemony. Allies of the U.S. in Asia and Europe are increasingly concerned about the implications of an unconstrained nuclear environment, calling for renewed diplomatic efforts to prevent a dangerous escalation.
What Next: Navigating an Uncharted Nuclear Future
The path forward in a world without formal arms control treaties between the major nuclear powers is fraught with uncertainty. The immediate prospects for a new, comprehensive arms control framework – especially one that includes China – appear dim.
U.S. Strategic Adjustments
The United States is likely to continue its dual approach: modernizing its own nuclear arsenal to ensure effective deterrence while simultaneously pressing China for greater transparency and engagement in risk reduction dialogues. Washington may explore unilateral transparency measures or confidence-building initiatives, hoping to set an example and encourage reciprocal actions from Beijing and Moscow. There will also be increased focus on intelligence gathering and public reporting to monitor the nuclear activities of its rivals.
China’s Continued Expansion
China is expected to continue its current trajectory of nuclear modernization and expansion, likely maintaining its stance of strategic ambiguity and refusal to join trilateral arms control talks. Beijing argues that its arsenal is still significantly smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia, and that its "no first use" policy makes transparency less critical. However, this position is increasingly challenged by the sheer scale and speed of its nuclear buildup.
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International Pressure and Diplomacy
The international community, particularly non-nuclear weapon states and organizations like the United Nations, will likely intensify calls for all nuclear powers to exercise restraint, uphold non-proliferation norms, and engage in meaningful dialogue. Diplomatic efforts will focus on exploring alternative mechanisms for strategic stability, such as regional security dialogues, expert-level discussions on nuclear doctrines, and renewed emphasis on the CTBT. However, without the political will from the key players, particularly the U.S., Russia, and China, the world faces a prolonged period of elevated nuclear risk and uncertainty.
